As we enter the year 2024, the global order is undergoing significant transformations in the political, economic, and diplomatic spheres. Trends that have been brewing beneath the surface for several years have now come to the forefront, revealing the complex challenges that existing frameworks and institutions are struggling to manage. The term “disruption” has been overused to label anything that the world finds difficult to grapple with or accept, highlighting an intellectual void in international relations. However, the forces underlying these changes have been present for some time.
The world is currently grappling with fundamental transformations caused by shifting power dynamics, technological advancements, and institutional decay. The COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts in Eurasia and the Middle East have exacerbated these shifts, resulting in global inflation, food and energy crises, and widespread economic downturn. Nations are facing the challenge of providing for their citizens’ basic needs while simultaneously struggling to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In the Indo-Pacific region, which serves as a central theater for global competition, India is facing a series of challenging questions. These include navigating great power rivalries, conflicts, economic crises, deglobalization, adverse climate events, and a weakening multilateral order. However, amidst these challenges, India also has opportunities to regain trust and leverage in its neighborhood, benefit from the relocation of global supply chains, expand cooperation with the West, promote clean energy transition, and solidify its position as a global leader. Successfully navigating these challenges and seizing these opportunities has the potential to elevate India’s status in the global order and provide crucial strategic gains.
India has already demonstrated its global leadership role during its G-20 presidency in 2023. This platform allowed India to shape the agenda for global cooperation in a world recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. By hosting a high-profile international gathering during a time of turbulence and successfully forging consensus among key global stakeholders, India showcased its readiness to think big and deliver significant outcomes. This aligns with India’s desire to play a larger global role by participating in key alliances, creating new ones, and promoting collaborative and inclusive global governance in various areas, including climate change, sustainable development, global health, and peacekeeping.
Another notable trend in India’s foreign policy is its ability to balance its key partnerships. Despite challenges, India’s ties with major global powers, including the West and Russia, have continued to grow and evolve. The resurgence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the US, India, Australia, and Japan exemplifies this new reality, where India and the US are forging a partnership based on emerging geopolitical dynamics. Additionally, India has realized the importance of building domestic capacities in critical sectors to counter challenges posed by countries like China. This realization has led to a focus on self-reliance in critical infrastructure and defense supplies.
In 2023, India achieved its highest defense export value, signaling the growth of its military-industrial complex and aligning with the government’s larger “Atmanirbhar” Initiative. In the economic realm, India has shown greater openness to forging substantive trade partnerships with like-minded nations. These developments mark a pivotal moment for India’s rise as a top-tier economic power, a multicultural democracy, and a geopolitical player capable of leading rather than simply balancing.
The choices that India makes in the coming years will shape the trajectory of its rise and contribute to the transformation of the global order. It is an inflection point for both India and the world, presenting opportunities and challenges that will define the future.
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