The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has initiated its preparations for the upcoming 2024 general election, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting a goal of achieving a 50% vote share for the party. During a closed-door meeting in Delhi, PM Modi urged national office bearers to work diligently in “mission mode” to surpass the 50% mark, according to news reports.
In the previous 2019 elections, the BJP secured a 37.4% vote share, receiving 22.9 crore votes. On the seats it contested (435), the party attained a 46.1% vote share. Notably, the BJP garnered more than 50% vote share on 224 out of the 303 seats it won in 2019. Additionally, the party achieved over 50% vote share in 12 states and union territories, including Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Goa.
With the recent victory over the Congress in the Hindi heartland, the BJP is highly motivated to achieve an unprecedented record in the 2024 election. It is worth mentioning that no party has ever reached a 50% vote share in the Lok Sabha elections, with the Congress coming closest with 48.1% in 1984 after the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
To accomplish the target of 50% vote share, the BJP has devised several strategies. Firstly, the party aims to increase its vote share in the seats it won in 2019. Out of the 303 seats won, there are 95 seats where the BJP emerged victorious in all three previous elections (2009, 2014, and 2019). In addition, the party won two out of three polls in 167 seats. By focusing on better turnout management and mobilizing more supporters, the BJP aims to secure larger margins of victory in these seats. However, this strategy may not necessarily result in additional seats for the party.
Secondly, the BJP intends to increase its vote share in the seats where it faced defeat in 2019. With better turnout management, local alliances, and the advantage of incumbency due to the Modi government’s work over the past decade, the party hopes to gain a higher vote share in these seats. Nonetheless, the outcome in terms of seat acquisition remains uncertain.
Thirdly, the BJP plans to contest a larger number of seats compared to 2019 due to the departure of some alliance partners from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Parties like the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, Janata Dal (United), and AIADMK have left the NDA in the past five years. The BJP is likely to increase its seat count in states such as Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab. Contesting more seats would contribute to an increase in the party’s total votes and vote share. While winning additional seats in Bihar and Maharashtra seems feasible, Tamil Nadu and Punjab pose more significant challenges at present.
Apart from these strategies, the BJP will also focus on specific voter groups. The party aims to consolidate its support among beneficiaries of various welfare schemes, particularly those who have benefited from nine key programs credited to the central government. By extending free ration to 80 crore people over the next five years, the BJP hopes to secure the backing of even more beneficiaries.
Women have emerged as an influential voting bloc, with increased awareness and literacy levels empowering them to make independent voting decisions. In recent elections, women have been turning out in larger numbers than men, cutting across caste and class lines. The BJP expects to gain more support from women through women-focused schemes and the women’s reservation bill.
Furthermore, the BJP recognizes the significance of first-time voters, who accounted for 2% of the total voter base in 2019. With an anticipated 2 crore first-time voters in the 2024 elections, the party has been engaging with this group through programs like “pariksha pe charcha” and targeted social media campaigns.
While achieving a 50% vote share may seem daunting, considering the lack of confidence in the opposition, it is not an impossible feat. However, the BJP must remain cautious and avoid complacency as it strives to attain this ambitious goal.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. Previously, he worked in corporate and investment banking.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
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