In December of last year, Jaish ul-Adl, a Sunni militant group operating in Pakistan’s Balochistan region and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, attacked a police post in the Iranian city of Rusk, resulting in the death of 12 police personnel. This attack is just one of many that have been attributed to Jaish ul-Adl over the years.
Yesterday, Iran launched missile strikes inside Pakistan, highlighting the longstanding differences between the two countries regarding Baloch militancy and the ethnic tensions surrounding it. This comes at a time of fragility in both regional and global security. Pakistan condemned the Iranian actions and summoned their charge d’affaires, while Jaish ul-Adl confirmed the strikes on their positions in remote mountains of Balochistan.
Interestingly, Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister had met just hours before the missile strikes at the Davos economic summit in Switzerland. This has led to speculation about whether Iran informed Pakistan about the strikes beforehand. With Pakistan already facing security challenges from various militant groups, including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State Khorasan, direct aggression from Iran adds another front that the Pakistani military may struggle to handle.
The relationship between Iran, Pakistan, and the Taliban regarding Baloch militancy is complex. The Afghan Taliban is often accused of privately supporting and publicly condemning groups like Jaish ul-Adl. Tensions between Pakistan and Iran over Jaish’s activities along their borders have been ongoing since 2011-12. Iran has blamed Pakistan for not addressing its concerns about these entities and has accused other countries like Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE of supporting them.
While some analysts see the Iranian action in Pakistan as part of its strategic play in the Middle East, the issue of Jaish and the tensions between Iran and Pakistan predate the ongoing conflicts in the region. Iran has repeatedly stated its intention to target Jaish safe spaces in Pakistan, and border clashes between the two countries have been common. This incident is primarily a bilateral and border management matter, but it is further complicated by the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021.
For Pakistan, this new theater of conflict adds to the disintegration of its failed policies of promoting state-sponsored extremism and terrorism. With its economy collapsing and its strategic assets turning against its rule, other countries see this as an opportunity to target these ecosystems. However, with only caretakers managing the country, political will is limited, and the military is preoccupied with undermining civilian challenges.
One concerning aspect of events like the Iranian missile strike is that Pakistan is a nuclear power. The fact that nuclear deterrence was not a factor in Iran’s targeting of Jaish in Balochistan raises questions about Pakistan’s strategic thinking. The country’s all-powerful army chief reportedly sought American help to combat the TTP threat, but this request was not accepted. The only other use Pakistan seems to have for its nuclear weapons is to create fear of them falling into the hands of militants.
Lastly, this event highlights the fact that the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater cannot be ignored by the international community. Despite disagreements with the Taliban, Iran is working with the regime to ensure that Western military power, particularly that of the US, never comes close to its borders again.
In conclusion, the missile strikes by Iran inside Pakistan have exposed the ongoing tensions and complexities surrounding Baloch militancy in the region. This incident raises concerns about Pakistan’s ability to manage multiple security challenges and its strategic thinking as a nuclear power. It also emphasizes the importance of not ignoring the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater in the broader context of global security.
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