Iran and the United States are assessing the damage caused by American airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, and attention has now turned to Tehran and its decision on whether to respond or de-escalate the situation. While Washington and its allies expect Iran to choose de-escalation, it remains uncertain whether the proxy forces supported by Iran will also back off. Following a drone attack by an Iran-backed militia that killed three American soldiers, the US retaliated with targeted strikes against several Iran-backed militias. US officials have denied any direct communication with Iran regarding the strikes. President Biden is taking a calculated approach, seeking to restore deterrence in the region and orchestrate cease-fires in Gaza, while also attempting to reshape the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran has publicly expressed a desire to lower tensions but still aims to drive the US out of the region. In response to the strikes, Iran’s initial reaction was relatively mild. The US has been cautious in its military actions, prompting criticism from some who believe it encourages adversaries. Suggestions have been made to target officers of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards forces whenever they leave Iran. The recent strikes carried out with B-1B bombers also sent a message about American power. While some consider the US approach overcautious, it is viewed as hostile in the region. Iran’s slow response and reference to the Gaza war rather than the US as the cause of tension indicate a longer-term objective to drive Americans out of the region with the help of its proxies. Military action by the US has degraded capabilities but not created long-term deterrence. Negotiations have had some success in reducing attacks on US bases, but the situation remains fragile. The possibility of a cease-fire in Gaza and its potential impact on the region is still uncertain.
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U.S. strikes challenge Iran’s escalation intentions
