India is looking to distance itself from Russia as its main supplier of arms due to Russia’s limited ability to provide munitions and spares as a result of the Ukrainian conflict. However, India must tread carefully to avoid strengthening Russia’s ties with China. Over the past two decades, Russia has supplied 65% of India’s weapons purchases, amounting to over $60 billion. This situation has prompted India to diversify its weapons base.
Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, stated, “We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia. That would be a red line for Washington.” Despite Russia’s offers, including advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the possibility of joint manufacturing in India, Indian sources remain cautious and prefer to focus on domestic production with Western technology. This aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative, which aims to boost domestic manufacturing.
India is projected to spend nearly $100 billion on defense orders in the next decade, as stated by its defense minister. Last year, India and the United States signed a deal for General Electric to produce engines in India for its fighter jets, marking a significant concession by the US to a non-ally. The two countries also plan to enhance technology cooperation and co-production in various areas, including air combat and intelligence.
India’s concerns about China have further strengthened its ties with the United States. The two nations have been engaged in a standoff on their Himalayan frontier since 2020, following a deadly clash that resulted in the deaths of 24 soldiers. While India desires to maintain a balance between Russia and the West, it must carefully navigate its relationship with Russia, as it is the largest buyer of its arms and one of the largest purchasers of its oil since 2022. Severing ties with Russia could push Moscow closer to Beijing, which India aims to avoid.
The stability of Russia’s arms exports has improved since the early disruptions caused by the Ukrainian conflict. However, concerns about India’s operational readiness due to potential delays in receiving spare parts from Russia remain. India’s efforts to diversify its defense sources have been fueled by these concerns.
Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged India to enhance defense ties, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, during a joint press conference in Moscow, emphasized the strength of overall bilateral relations but did not specifically mention defense cooperation. Progress on a 2015 deal to jointly manufacture Kamov Ka-226T helicopters in India has been stagnant, and instead, India has started inducting combat helicopters produced domestically.
While more than 60% of India’s military hardware consists of Soviet or Russian-origin weapons, India will require Russian spares for maintenance and repairs for almost two decades. Despite some setbacks and delays in previous deals, India and Russia continue joint projects such as the BrahMos cruise missile and the planned production of AK-203 rifles in India.
In conclusion, India aims to reduce its reliance on Russia as its primary arms supplier due to limitations caused by the Ukrainian conflict. However, India must be cautious in managing its relationship with Russia to prevent strengthening ties between Russia and China. The country is focusing on domestic production with Western technology and strengthening defense ties with the United States. Despite diversification efforts, India will still require Russian spares for its military hardware for an extended period.
India is looking to reduce its reliance on Russia as its main arms supplier due to Russia’s limited ability to provide munitions and spare parts following the war in Ukraine. Russia has historically supplied 65% of India’s weapons purchases, but India is now seeking to diversify its weapons base. The move is seen as a way for India to strengthen its ties with the United States and support domestic production through initiatives like the “Make in India” program. However, India must be cautious not to push Russia closer to China, as Russia is not only India’s largest arms supplier but also a significant purchaser of Indian oil. India’s multi-alignment strategy aims to balance its relationships with Russia and the West, but the distribution may not be equal. There are concerns about Russia’s ability to provide spare parts and maintain India’s military hardware, but India and Russia continue to collaborate on joint production projects.
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