2023 NFL playoff picture: Ranking all 9 NFC wild-card contenders, including sinking Eagles, scrappy Seahawks

With 15 weeks down in the 2023 NFL season, the playoffs are right around the corner. A lot can still happen between now and the end of the regular season, of course, but the postseason picture is really starting to take shape.

As we approach Week 16, how do the teams fighting for one of the NFC’s three wild-card spots stack up? Here’s how we’d rank all 11 of them behind the current division leaders.

Division leaders

1. 49ers (NFC West, 11-3)
2. Cowboys (NFC East, 10-4)
3. Lions (NFC North, 10-4)
4. Buccaneers (NFC South, 7-7)

The 49ers reign supreme among the four division leaders as the front-runner to not only claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed but make a run at the Super Bowl. During their current six-game win streak, they’ve beaten every opponent by multiple scores, with both Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey drawing MVP buzz. The Cowboys are taking turns with the Eagles dropping important games to seize control of the East, but they’ve got the play-makers to do damage at home. The Lions got back on track by cruising past the Broncos in Week 15; they’re also an entirely different animal at home versus on the road. And the Buccaneers are doing just enough in an ugly NFC South, though the Saints can’t yet be counted out.

Eliminated

Wild card contenders

Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

9. Giants (5-9)

Remaining schedule: at Eagles, vs. Rams, vs. Eagles
SportsLine playoff chances: <1%

Tommy DeVito is a fun story, but it’s not sustainable behind the offensive line that propelled him into the emergency quarterback job in the first place. New York can scrap, but with such battered trenches, they were always destined to come back to Earth.

8. Falcons (6-8)

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints|
SportsLine playoff chances: 4.7% | Playoff odds: Make (+435), Miss (-700)

Is there any team that makes wild-card contention look more underwhelming? They have an underrated defense, but it matters little when Arthur Smith flip-flops between Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke to produce a perpetually sputtery passing “attack,” which often leaves some of the club’s best weapons (i.e. Bijan Robinson) to watch from afar.

7. Bears (5-9)

Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, at Packers
SportsLine playoff chances: <1%

At this point, it’s abundantly clear they don’t have the depth, fortitude or strategy to close games. But Matt Eberflus’ defense has truly turned a corner as an opportunistic, physical unit, and Justin Fields can never be counted out as a play-extender. How many of their current leaders, on and off the field, will be around in 2024?

6. Vikings (7-7)

Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions
SportsLine playoff chances: 65.8%

Brian Flores has done more with less as their defensive mind, helping their lineup overachieve all year — and perhaps earning a return to the head coaching circuit in the process. But Kevin O’Connell’s creativity has given way to more curious situational play-calling of late, probably because he’s overcompensating for their carousel of mercurial emergency QBs.

5. Packers (6-8)

Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears
SportsLine playoff chances: 19.9%

A true boom-or-bust spoiler, they profile as precisely the young team they are. One week, Jordan Love’s arm looks MVP-caliber, flicking downfield shots. Another week, Joe Barry’s defense is playing so far off that it lets Baker Mayfield throw four scores. Can they sneak into a shootout with a better team? Sure. But they’re growing on the fly.

4. Saints (7-7)

Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons
SportsLine playoff chances: 48.9% | Playoff odds: Make (-110), Miss (-120)

Getting on the scoreboard often feels like such hard work for Derek Carr and Co., with Alvin Kamara maybe the only truly reliable outlet for such a conservative signal-caller, at least when Chris Olave’s not available. But a sterling defense can be vital in the colder months, and New Orleans boasts a borderline top-five unit against the pass.

3. Seahawks (7-7)

Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals
SportsLine playoff chances: 55.5%

Drew Lock’s heroics saved their season against the Eagles, but he wasn’t the only one to step up; Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined to give them a thunder-and-lightning offense when it mattered most. They’re still inconsistent and conservatively coached, but they don’t lack for crunch-time spirit.

2. Rams (7-7)

Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers
SportsLine playoff chances: 46% | Playoff odds: Make (-150), Miss (+120)

They aren’t the shutdown defense they were during their title-contending years, but guess what? Matthew Stafford has been back to full form for weeks now, helping L.A. tie the 49ers for the longest current streak of 28-point games (4). If the line can keep him upright and the secondary heals up, Sean McVay’s squad could be an early-round surprise.

1. Eagles (10-4)

Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants (PHI)
SportsLine playoff chances: 100%

Has there been a shakier 10-win team in recent memory? Maybe the 2022 Vikings or 2020 Steelers, who both went one-and-done in the playoffs? In a matter of weeks, Philly’s gone from ultra-clutch to predictable and panicky. The only reason they top this list is because they’re too talented to completely write off. With an easier stretch to the finish line, perhaps they can rebuild a semblance of momentum going into a postseason berth that’s already locked up.