2024 Could Surpass Record-Setting 2023 in Terms of Heat, Warns UN
Geneva: The United Nations has issued a warning that this year could be even hotter than the record-breaking 2023, influenced by El Nino, and has called for urgent cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.
According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), new monthly temperature records were set every month from June to December last year, and this pattern is expected to continue due to the warming effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a one in three chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, with a 99 percent certainty that 2024 will rank among the five warmest years on record.
Speaking to the press, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt expressed even higher odds, estimating a 50-50 chance of 2024 being warmer or slightly cooler. He also mentioned the presence of “mysterious” changes in Earth’s climate systems that require further data for confirmation or refutation.
The WMO confirmed that July and August of 2023 were the hottest months ever recorded and officially declared 2023 as the warmest year on record by a significant margin. The global average temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The Paris climate accords of 2015 aimed to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an even more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
The WMO’s new secretary-general, Celeste Saulo, warned that the El Nino, which emerged in mid-2023, is likely to further increase temperatures in 2024. Typically associated with global heatwaves, El Nino usually raises global temperatures in the year following its development.
The NOAA reported that the global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.18 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average, surpassing the previous warmest year, 2016, by a record-setting margin of 0.15 degrees Celsius. The Arctic, northern North America, central Asia, the North Atlantic, and the eastern tropical Pacific experienced particularly high temperatures.
Saulo emphasized that climate change is now humanity’s greatest challenge. A WMO report in November highlighted record high levels of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, in 2022, with preliminary data indicating further growth in 2023.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that humanity’s actions are “scorching the Earth” and that 2023 was just a glimpse of the catastrophic future that awaits if immediate action is not taken.
The WMO revealed that each decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the previous one, and the warmest nine years on record have all occurred since 2015.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, along with NOAA and NASA, released their temperature findings for 2023 in line with the WMO’s assessment.
Even if Earth’s average surface temperature surpasses the 1.5-degree Celsius mark in 2024, it does not necessarily mean that the world has failed to meet the Paris Agreement target. The agreement allows for the possibility of reducing Earth’s temperature after a period of exceeding the threshold.
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