Washington — Recent missile launches by North Korea suggest the country is nearing the capability to deploy a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could potentially reach any location within the United States, according to defense analysts.
The North Korean regime, led by Kim Jong Un, conducted a test of what has been described as their most potent ICBM yet, the Hwasong-18, earlier this week. Kim Jong Un emphasized the test’s success, confirming the robustness of the nation’s nuclear strike abilities, and warned of a forceful retaliation in the event of any aggression. This development was officially reported by North Korea’s state media on Thursday.
In a display of military solidarity and a direct response to the North’s missile test, the United States flew B-1B bombers alongside South Korean and Japanese fighters over the waters near Jeju Island, South Korea, on Wednesday. This exercise was characterized by the South Korean military as a demonstration of strength.
The Hwasong-18 ICBM launch on Monday came after a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) test the day before, marking a continued pattern of missile testing by Pyongyang for the third year in a row.
This year alone, North Korea has conducted five ICBM tests, with the recent test being the third involving the Hwasong-18, following previous launches in April and July. Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, indicated that the recent tests suggest operational drills for the Hwasong-18, hinting at its possible formal induction into North Korea’s strategic arsenal soon.
The missile, praised by Kim as “the most powerful,” achieved an altitude of 6,000 km and covered a distance of 1,000 km. Experts have assessed that it has the potential to carry a nuclear payload and, if fired along a standard trajectory, could have a range exceeding 15,000 km, sufficient to target any point in the U.S.
David Schmerler, a senior researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, noted that while the missile’s technical performance might meet North Korean standards, it may not yet be operational by international norms.
On the same day as the ICBM test, North Korea’s deputy foreign minister, Pak Myong Ho, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in China, a meeting confirmed by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry called on China to use its influence constructively to encourage North Korea to cease its provocative actions. However, Robert Rapson, a former senior diplomat at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, expressed skepticism about China’s willingness to curb North Korea’s missile activities, suggesting that Beijing does not view the tests as a direct threat and that they align with China’s strategic interests against the U.S. and its allies.
Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. National Intelligence Council official, voiced his belief that North Korea is unlikely to halt its weapons advancements due to Chinese concerns.
Gary Samore, who previously served in the Obama administration, interpreted the recent missile tests as a political protest against the growing security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. This includes a recent Nuclear Consultative Group meeting in Washington, where the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to defend South Korea with all necessary capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
The arrival of the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri at a South Korean port coincided with North Korea’s SRBM test, which analysts like Ken Gause from the Center for Naval Analyses see as a potential signal from Pyongyang demonstrating its ability to target U.S. assets in the region during a crisis.,
North Korea has been steadily developing its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, which could potentially bring the entire United States within range of its nuclear weapons. Recent advancements in North Korea’s missile technology have raised concerns among international observers and policymakers.
The country has conducted several missile tests over the years, with each launch drawing extensive scrutiny and leading to calls for diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation. Despite international sanctions and diplomatic pressure, North Korea has continued to progress in its missile development program.
The possibility of an upcoming ICBM test, as indicated by intelligence reports or North Korean state media, could demonstrate an operational range that includes all of the US mainland. This would mark a significant increase in North Korea’s strategic capabilities and could alter the security dynamics in the Pacific region and beyond.
Such a development would likely prompt calls for renewed international efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, including diplomatic engagement, economic sanctions, and military preparedness measures by countries potentially within reach of these weapons. It would also intensify the debate over missile defense systems and regional security arrangements.
It is important to note that information regarding North Korea’s missile capabilities and intentions often comes from intelligence estimates and should be approached with caution. The situation remains fluid, and the international community continues to monitor North Korea’s actions closely.
